New researchers from the USGS have learned new data that suggests a California “Big One” could happen soon.
Researchers analysed the latest data from the state’s complex system of active geological faults, as well as new methods for translating these data into earthquake likelihoods.
The estimate for the likelihood that California will experience a magnitude 8 or larger earthquake in the next 30 years has increased from about 4.7% to about 7.0%, they say.
‘We are fortunate that seismic activity in California has been relatively low over the past century,’ said Tom Jordan, Director of the Southern California Earthquake Center and a co-author of the study.
‘But we know that tectonic forces are continually tightening the springs of the San Andreas fault system, making big quakes inevitable.
‘The UCERF3 model provides our leaders and the public with improved information about what to expect, so that we can better prepare.’